Competent Person's Report on the Chuditch PSC

Source Press Release
Company Baron Oil PLCWoodside Energy Group Ltd 
Tags Reserve Update, Production/Development, Discovery, Upstream Activities
Date February 28, 2023

Baron Oil Plc (AIM:BOIL), the AIM-quoted oil and gas exploration and appraisal company, is pleased to announce that a copy of a Competent Person's Report ("CPR") prepared by ERC Equipoise Pte Ltd ("ERCE") on the offshore Timor-Leste PSC TL-SO-19-16 ("Chuditch PSC"), can be viewed here:http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/2161R_1-2023-2-27.pdf and will be published in due course on the Company's website at:  . Baron has a 75% operated effective interest in the Chuditch PSC, which is operated by its wholly owned subsidiary SundaGas Banda Unipessoal Lda ("SundaGas") and contains the Chuditch-1 gas discovery and offset analogous prospects.

The CPR has been prepared in accordance with the June 2018 Petroleum Resources Management System ("SPE PRMS") as the standard for reporting. A summary of the gross and net Prospective and Contingent Resources, prepared on a probabilistic basis, is given in the tables below.

Key Points from the CPR

Contingent Resources assigned to Chuditch-1 discovery*

ERCE estimates that Chuditch-1 discovery contains 1,084 Bscf gross Pmean Contingent gas Resources attributable to the licence

Aggregated** gross Pmean Prospective gas Resources attributable to the licence of 1,562 Bscf:

  • Chuditch SW prospect estimated to contain 675 Bscf gross Pmean Prospective gas Resources when aggregated** across two segments, Alpha and Beta, with respective Geological Chances of Success ("GCOS") of 52% and 45%;
  • Chuditch NE prospect estimated to contain 744 Bscf gross Pmean Prospective gas Resources with a GCOS of 30%; and
  • Quokka prospect estimated to contain 143 Bscf gross Pmean Prospective gas Resources with a GCOS of 26%.

Oil equivalent** Pmean Resources net to the Baron working interest, including the condensate yield, calculated by the Company to be:

  • 140 MMboe Contingent for Chuditch-1; and
  • 202 MMboe Prospective, when aggregated**

*A chance of development has not been estimated for the Chudich-1 discovery.

**The CPR reports gas and condensate Contingent and Prospective Resources separately per discovery and prospects. Aggregation and oil equivalent calculations performed by Company. See Glossary below for basis of calculation.

Management Commentary

The assignment of Contingent Resources to the Chuditch-1 discovery, built on the extensive technical studies completed by the Company, sets the foundation for the next stage of the project cycle. This phase would typically include an appraisal well, pre-feasibility studies, Environmental Impact Assessment planning, and preliminary work on gas sales arrangements. Management believes that the Chuditch-1 Pmean Contingent Resources, now independently assessed, are likely to be sufficiently large to be economically viable to be developed standalone or in parallel with other developments in the region.

Management's probabilistic estimates of gross gas Prospective Resources for the Chuditch SW, NE, and Quokka prospects, as set out below, differ from ERCE's estimates, mainly through the Company's preferred use of the latest reprocessed seismic data velocity model to define the extent of the prospects. Further technical discussion regarding these differences can be found in Appendix 1 of the CPR.

Management notes that in its previous announcements the Company referred to both Chuditch NE and Quokka informally as "Leads", due to parts falling outside of 3D seismic coverage, whereas ERCE describe them as "Prospects", terminology which the Company has now adopted. This increase in maturity towards being drillable features is accompanied by a more conservative view on the probabilistic Prospective Resources estimation being taken by ERCE. Further, in the Company's announcement of 24 October 2022, the basis for in house estimation was as "Deterministic Best Case", whereas estimates presented in this announcement are "Probabilistic" which introduces ranges of uncertainty on all contributing subsurface and recovery factors, including the degree to which 3D seismic coverage is not currently available on Chuditch NE and Quokka. Deterministic Best Case and Probabilistic estimates are not therefore directly comparable.

·    Baron's own Pmean estimates of gross unrisked Prospective Resources aggregate to 2,128 Bscf***:

o  Chuditch SW 855 Bscf***, with a low to high estimate range from 420 to 1,284 Bscf*** and a GCOS of 40%;

§ Baron considers that SW represents a relatively low risk follow on to a Chuditch-1 appraisal well; 

o  Chuditch NE 863 Bscf***, with a low to high estimate range from 311 to 1,401 Bscf*** and a GCOS of 34%; and;

o  Quokka 410 Bscf***, with a low to high estimate range from 110 to 733 Bscf*** and a GCOS of 26%.

Aggregate oil equivalent Pmean Prospective Resources net to the Baron working interest, including the condensate yield, are estimated by the Company to be 366 MMboe**, representing a significant follow-on portfolio to be explored. Management estimates of the Geological Chance of Success for the prospects are in reasonable agreement with ERCE's estimates, indicating the relatively low risk nature of the Prospective Resources assessment.

*** Not SPE PRMS compliant. However, management believes that its in-house estimates of Prospective Resources, although not independently verified to SPE PRMS, are based on best industry practice by employing the latest reprocessed seismic data velocity model.

TIMOR GAP announcement on development of the Greater Sunrise fields

Management notes that offshore Timor-Leste the Sunrise Joint Venture (TIMOR GAP 56.56%; Operator, Woodside Energy 33.44%; Osaka Gas Australia 10.0%) announced on 6 February 2023 that it will undertake a concept select program for the development of the Greater Sunrise fields, including the location of gas delivery, processing and onward LNG sales, which management believes has potential positive impacts on the export options for the development of the Chuditch-1 gas discovery (See Section 3.5 of the CPR - Development Plans - for more detail).

TIMOR GAP's press release can be found here: https://www.timorgap.com/newsroom/press-releases/sunrise-joint-venture-to-undertake-concept-select-with-a-strong-focus-on-delivery-of-gas-to-timor-leste/.

Jon Ford, Technical Director of Baron, commented:

"The independent assessment of approximately 1.1Tscf of gross Pmean Contingent Resources for the Chuditch-1 discovery is a major milestone, underpinning the potential commercial viability of the asset and highlighting its attractions to potential future participants in the Chuditch project."

Following the recent fund-raise we have a well-funded balance sheet for current operations, with current work commitments on both the Timor-Leste and UK P2478 assets largely complete. Our focus now is on assessing the viability of drilling for both a Chuditch appraisal well in Timor-Leste and a Dunrobin West exploration well in the UK."

Contingent and Prospective Resources

The tables below summarise ERCE's independent assessment of Gross Contingent and Prospective Resources as at the CPR's effective date of 31 January 2023, from which are derived the Net Contingent and Prospective Resources attributable to Baron's 75% net working interest, wholly within the Chuditch PSC licence area. Totals are by arithmetic summation by the Company.

Contingent Resources

ERCE attributes the Contingent Resources associated with the Chuditch-1 discovery to the sub-class Development Unclarified. The Chuditch discovery Development Unclarified Contingent Resources are contingent on the drilling and testing of an appraisal well, the Operator finalising a commercially viable development plan and the Operator being able to fund and execute this development plan, including obtaining partner and regulatory consents to the appropriate facilities.

Contingent Resources  Gross Attributable to Licence  Net Attributable to Baron Oil  Risk Factor (CoS)  Operator 
Low Estimate  Best Estimate  High Estimate  Mean Estimate  Low Estimate  Best Estimate  High Estimate  Mean Estimate 
(1C)  (2C)  (3C)    (1C)  (2C)  (3C)   
 Gas (Bscf) 
Chuditch-1 Discovery  461  929  1845  1084  346  697  1383  813  n/a  SundaGas 
Condensate (MMstb) 
Chuditch-1 Discovery"  1.4  4.1  11.9  5.9  1.1  3.1  9.0  4.4  n/a   
Oil equivalent (MMboe) ** 
Chuditch-1 Discovery"  78  159  319  187  59  119  240  140  n/a   

Notes:

1. Gross Contingent Resources attributable to Licence are limited to within PSC TL-SO-19-16 and are based on percentage on-block of the total Gross Contingent Resources.

2. Net attributable resources are based on a SundaGas working interest of 75% of the Gross Contingent Resources attributable to Licence following development and first gas prior to deduction of any royalties. SundaGas are carrying the costs of the remaining 25% interest during this phase.

3. Company net entitlement Contingent Resources require a full economic evaluation which has not been done as part of this CPR and hence are not presented.

4. There is no geological risk factor (CoS) for Contingent Resources because the resource has been discovered. The Contingent Resources have not been risked for chance of development and are sub-classified as development unclarified.

5. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to develop any portion of the Contingent Resources.

6. Contingent Resources for gas include the removal of inert gasses.

Prospective Resources

Prospective Resources  Gross Attributable to Licence  Net Attributable to Baron Oil  Risk Factor (CoS)  Operator 
Low Estimate  Best Estimate  High Estimate  Mean Estimate  Low Estimate  Best Estimate  High Estimate  Mean Estimate 
(1U)  (2U)  (3U)    (1U)  (2U)  (3U)   
Gas Prospective Resources - Gas (Bscf) 
Chuditch SW Alpha  139  326  729  394  105  244  547  296  52%  SundaGas 
Chuditch SW Beta"  107  238  505  281  80  179  379  211  45%   
Chuditch NE  163  516  1556  744  122  387  1167  558  30%  "" 
Quokka  27  94  314  143  20  70  236  108  26%   
Aggregate** Gas (Bscf)  436  1174  3104  1562  327  881  2328  1172     
Condensate Prospective Resources (MMstb) 
Chuditch SW Alpha"  0.4  1.4  4.6  2.1  0.3  1.1  3.4  1.6  52%   
Chuditch SW Beta  0.3  1.1  3.2  1.5  0.3  0.8  2.4  1.1  45% 
Chuditch NE"  0.6  2.3  9.2  4.0  0.4  1.7  6.9  3.0  30%   
Quokka  0.1  0.4  1.8  0.8  0.1  0.3  1.4  0.6  26% 
Aggregate** Condensate (MMstb)  1.4  5.2  18.8  8.4  1.1  3.9  14.1  6.3     
Oil equivalent Prospective Resources (MMboe) 
Chuditch SW Alpha"  24  56  126  68  18  42  95  51  52%   
Chuditch SW Beta  18  41  87  48  14  31  66  36  45% 
Chuditch NE"  28  88  269  128  21  66  201  96  30%   
Quokka  16  54  25  12  41  18  26% 
Aggregate** Oil equivalent** (MMboe)  74  201  536  269  56  151  402  202     

Notes:      

1. Gross Prospective Resources attributable to Licence are limited to within PSC TL-SO-19-16 and are based on percentage on-block of the total Gross Prospective Resources.

2. Net attributable resources are based on a SundaGas working interest of 75% of the Gross Prospective Resources attributable to Licence following development and first gas prior to deduction of any royalties. SundaGas are carrying the costs of the remaining 25% interest during this phase.

3. Company net entitlement to Prospective Resources requires a full economic evaluation which has not been done as part of this CPR and hence are not presented.

4. The geological chance of success (COS) is an estimate of the probability that drilling the prospect would result in a discovery as defined under SPE PRMS 2018 guidelines.

5. In the case of Prospective Resources, there is no certainty that hydrocarbons will be discovered, nor if discovered will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources.

6. These are unrisked Prospective Resources that have not been risked for chance of development.

7. Prospective Resources for gas include the removal of inert gasses.

** Aggregation of P90, P50, and P10 values is not statistically correct but has been shown for illustrative purposes. Aggregation of Mean values is statistically correct. Aggregates have been calculated by Baron and may not sum exactly due to rounding factors.  Mean is defined as the arithmetic average of all outcomes in a probabilistic assessment of Contingent or Prospective Resources. Oil equivalence (MMboe) calculation has been provided by Baron for reference for the purposes of this announcement. See Glossary below for basis of calculation.

Qualified Person's Statement

Pursuant to the requirements of the AIM Rules - Note for Mining and Oil and Gas Companies ("AIM MOG"), the technical information and resource reporting contained in this announcement has been reviewed by Jon Ford BSc, Fellow of the Geological Society, Technical Director of the Company. Mr Ford has more than 40 years' experience as a petroleum geoscientist. He has compiled, read and approved the technical disclosure in this regulatory announcement and indicated where it does not comply with the Society of Petroleum Engineers' SPE PRMS standard.

Basis of preparation

The Prospective and Contingent Resources estimates within this announcement have been prepared on a probabilistic basis and unless indicated otherwise comply with the standards set forth in the SPE PRMS.  The probabilistic Prospective and Contingent Resources estimates within this announcement are not directly comparable to management's provisional in-house estimates of Gas-in-Place or Recoverable Gas Resources, as announced by the Company on 24 October 2022, which were prepared on a deterministic basis and not to the standards set forth in the SPE PRMS or in accordance with an appropriate Standard as set out in the AIM MOG Note.

Source: EvaluateEnergy® ©2024 EvaluateEnergy Ltd